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Showing posts from May, 2021

Covid in India

The second wave of COVID is creating havoc across the country. Though we could factor in innumerable reasons why we had let our guards down and taken by surprise with the second wave, one of the most important reasons is apathy and casual attitude of we the citizens. The more sooner we get this wave plateau, we can start taking the control. There are many models and forecasts out there when we would reach our peak. All of this is similar to astrology because there are lot of variables like enforcing lockdown, availability of oxygen/beds, rate of vaccination. Now I'm going to act like a soothsayer and explain my model. And going to explain whether my model works or not our system is overwhelmed and we need to give it an immediate relief.  I'm calculating R factor based on my understanding  R=(no. of cases in day d)/(no. of cases in day d-5)  This R tracks growth every 5th day assuming a person showing symptoms on a day d could have got the viral load passed on d-5. To achieve a